Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.461852 2.620280 2.788788 2.982239 3.199296 3.436641 3.717615
2025-03-30 2.207939 2.419367 2.655854 2.942919 3.286100 3.688770 4.205697
2025-04-06 2.038964 2.276937 2.552145 2.899282 3.333578 3.870869 4.606480
2025-04-13 1.895328 2.145151 2.441066 2.825021 3.322234 3.963509 4.889186
2025-04-20 1.827412 2.095552 2.420749 2.854882 3.437477 4.222999 5.425642
2025-04-27 1.781166 2.067124 2.421572 2.907627 3.582789 4.534450 6.083914
2025-05-04 1.739922 2.040859 2.421236 2.955810 3.722759 4.851236 6.806668
2025-05-11 1.675866 1.980911 2.372012 2.931742 3.754645 5.006553 7.288117
2025-05-18 1.620174 1.928461 2.328876 2.911626 3.788239 5.165305 7.804338
2025-05-25 1.567419 1.877026 2.283750 2.884552 3.807181 5.299978 8.301412
2025-06-01 1.518936 1.828910 2.240315 2.856334 3.820588 5.424876 8.805382
2025-06-08 1.483590 1.796765 2.217013 2.855588 3.876361 5.628690 9.528311
2025-06-15 1.460323 1.780667 2.216135 2.889524 3.993685 5.964324 10.672147
2025-06-22 1.416064 1.733941 2.169525 2.850496 3.985239 6.062166 11.267854
2025-06-29 1.374119 1.688857 2.123230 2.809021 3.968681 6.141318 11.842902
2025-07-06 1.326315 1.634023 2.060659 2.738558 3.895956 6.098276 12.062231
2025-07-13 1.309735 1.622406 2.060501 2.766897 4.000173 6.434519 13.555662
2025-07-20 1.300109 1.620088 2.073623 2.816928 4.147775 6.889009 15.709981
2025-07-27 1.289729 1.616168 2.083933 2.862604 4.291418 7.362943 18.315763
2025-08-03 1.262340 1.586749 2.054430 2.839792 4.301120 7.521630 19.757784
2025-08-10 1.237307 1.560008 2.028005 2.820720 4.316429 7.697123 21.440530
2025-08-17 1.211893 1.531994 1.998631 2.795044 4.316343 7.833894 23.074121
2025-08-24 1.187411 1.504699 1.969459 2.768274 4.311894 7.959208 24.798937